I write this while examination a votes being tallied on TV shows. In summary, formed on trends, it is probable to contend that there is reason for confidence on a partial of all 3 of a warring parties: a Congress-led UDF, a Communist-led LDF, and a BJP. But nothing of them can be all too happy. In that sense, a people have supposing a offset verdict. On a expostulate by Tiruvananthapuram, we found celebrations by all 3 groups. So who won?
The obligatory Congress won where expected: in sold where a Christian votebanks are strong, such as in Cochin, they continued to do well. However, anti-incumbency and denial during a widespread scams and crime seems to have shop-worn them, that does not bode good in a arriving Assembly elections in 2016.
The Communists, who were approaching to remove heavily as a outcome of a detriment of their Ezhava votebank, did improved than anticipated. The fact is that a approaching vast steam of Ezhava votes to a BJP-SNDP fondness did not utterly materialise. Thus, by not unwell as badly as was thought, a Communists have extended their chances to lapse to energy in 2016.
The BJP did many improved than their display in past years. However, they did not do as good as had been expected. Based on their fondness with a Sri Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP), they should have finished better; though as it incited out, total with a UDF decline, it appears they were means to attract partial of a Nair vote, so handling to strech second place in Thiruvananthapuram, for instance.
But what was many transparent is that a mouthing of “secularism”, “communalism”, and other shibboleths has had a abating impact on a a voter. The continuous cheering about #Dadri and #beef and other ‘minority’ issues has, in fact, harm Congress and a fan Muslim League, so that even in their building of Malappuram, they suffered some startle defeats.
I was listening to some articulate heads on TV examining a results, and it was engaging that all of them reflexively swore that this choosing was a toll publicity of “secular” parties and that “communalism” was in retreat. If we cruise that “secular” is a substitution for a Congress and a Left, and that “communalism” is a substitution for a BJP, this view is a tired, aged regulation that we don’t consider a open is shopping any more.
Coming on a same day that a #MarchforIndia was a outrageous success, this shows that there is a thespian change in a nicely in a country, even in hitherto unyielding left fortresses as Kerala (and utterly honestly, both a Congress and a Communists are merely opposite shades of leftism).
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While it is utterly loyal that rarely internal issues change internal voting as compared to Assembly or Parliament voting, today’s outcome gives room for postponement for all a vital alliances. And if we extrapolate a trends to Assembly elections in 2016, this suggests that a UDF will lose. That might have been a foregone end given a swapping UDF, LDF cycle in Kerala. But it is transparent that a scams, in sold a bar fraud that recently even changed a High Court to reprimand a government, has had an impact on this semi-final.
Congress-watchers have certified that this is a disaster. Here’s a twitter from Shashi Tharoor, Congress MP from Thiruvananthapuram: “Poor opening of UDF opposite a state esp in Tvm calls for critical introspection within a Party esp on groupism in claimant selection.”
The Communists have some reason to be relieved. They have confirmed their reason on many municipalities, and they did not humour a large erosion of Ezhava votes many, including me, had predicted.
The BJP has work to do. While they have done a lot of progress, a sermon in Kerala is still about fascism, “vargiyata”, “matetara”, beef, and other dog-whistle words, that are simply formula for anti-Hinduism. The fact that they were not means to precedence a rising Hindu consolidation, and in particular, to attract a bulk of Ezhava votes, is means for concern. However, they will order a Palakkad municipality; and in several places, it is now in second place, pulling a UDF into third place.
In sum, Kerala is now a three-horse race: there is a genuine Third Front now. That itself is a sea-change. The BJP has done a mark, and it can't be created off any more. To rule, a other guys will have to work with a BJP: being a pitch opinion and king-maker is not a bad place to be.