EIA forecasts healthy gas to sojourn primary appetite source for electricity generation

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EIA’s Jan 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that healthy gas will sojourn a primary source of U.S. electricity era for during slightest a subsequent dual years. The share of sum electricity granted by healthy gas-fired appetite plants is approaching to normal 33% in 2018 and 34% in 2019, adult from 32% in 2017. EIA expects a share of era from coal, that had been a accepted electricity era fuel for decades, to normal 30% in 2018 and 28% in 2019, compared with 30% in 2017.

Illustration by U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The brew of appetite sources used for producing electricity era continues to change in response to changes in fuel costs and a growth of renewable appetite technologies. Since 2015, a cost of healthy gas delivered to electric generators has generally averaged $3.50 per million British thermal units (Btu) or less, and it is approaching to sojourn nearby this turn by 2019.

EIA expects a cost of healthy gas for electricity era to sojourn comparatively rival with coal-fired electricity over a subsequent dual years. The normal cost of healthy gas delivered to generators in 2018 is foresee to tumble 2%, while a foresee delivered cost of spark rises 5%. These relations cost changes should boost a share of healthy gas era in 2018. The costs of both healthy gas and spark in 2019 are approaching to sojourn comparatively unvaried from this year’s foresee prices.

Illustration by U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Power plant operators are scheduled to move 20 gigawatts (GW) of new natural-gas dismissed generating ability online in 2018, which, if realized, would be a largest boost in healthy gas ability given 2004. Almost 6 GW of a ability additions are being built in Pennsylvania, and some-more than 2 GW are being built in Texas. In contrast, about 13 GW of coal-fired ability are scheduled to be retired in 2018. These changes in a generating ability brew minister to a stability switch from spark to healthy gas, generally in southern and midwestern states.

Compared with a rest of a country, a use of healthy gas for electricity era is not approaching to boost as most in a West, where healthy gas mostly competes with hydropower. EIA expects a healthy gas era share in a West segment to arise from 27% in 2017 to 29% in 2018, essentially as a outcome of a decrease of a region’s hydropower era share, that is approaching to tumble from 26% in 2017 to 23% in 2018. In 2017, hydropower era in a West benefitted from atypically soppy conditions.

Illustration by U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Generation from renewable appetite sources other than hydropower has grown fast in new years. EIA expects a normal annual U.S. share of sum utility-scale era from nonhydro renewables to surpass 10% for a initial time in 2019.

Source: EIA

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