Growth in plug-in electric vehicles depends on destiny marketplace conditions

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Cumulative sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, reached 1.2 million worldwide in 2015. Still, PEVs comment for reduction than 1% of vehicles in use globally. Future developments in battery technology, policy, and consumer welfare have critical implications for destiny PEV adoption and offer as a good source of doubt in assembly destiny mobility demand.

Illustration by Getty images.

An Issues in Focus analysis conducted for EIA’s many recent International Energy Outlook (IEO2017) considers some of these uncertainties by opposite PEV invasion scenarios and considers a outcome that incompatible rates of adoption have on worldwide appetite consumption. EIA grown dual IEO2017 side cases to establish a outcome on worldwide appetite use if PEV adoption were aloft or reduce than projected in a Reference case.

The Low PEV Penetration box reflects low consumer acceptance of PEV record and projects a small reduction than half of a PEV batch as in a Reference box by 2040. The High PEV Penetration box reflects high consumer acceptance of PEV record and projects roughly double a PEV batch as in a Reference box by 2040.

Illustration by U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Different levels of projected PEV invasion have conspicuous effects on worldwide liquids fuel consumption. Liquids fuel expenditure in a light-duty car (LDV) zone is roughly dual quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) aloft in 2040 in a IEO2017 Low PEV Penetration box than in a Reference case. The High PEV Penetration box projects liquids fuel expenditure to be 2.75 quadrillion Btu reduce than in a Reference box in 2040.

Projected changes in light-duty car electricity expenditure is not one-to-one with a changes in light-duty car petroleum fuel consumption. Higher adoption of PEVs formula in reduction petroleum use, both since of a larger potency of a PEV powertrain and a switch from regulating petroleum to electricity. In a Low PEV Penetration case, LDVs devour roughly one quadrillion Btu reduction electricity than in a Reference case. In a High PEV Penetration box LDVs devour 1.8 quadrillion Btu some-more electricity than in a Reference box in 2040.

Source: EIA

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