Silver and S&P Similarities – Tops and Bottoms

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Silver and SP Similarities – Tops and Bottoms

Silver and SP Similarities – Tops and Bottoms

Examine a 30 year record scale draft of a SP 500. What we see:

S-SP

  1. Tops occurred about each 7 years. Tops were customarily rounded, followed by heated drops.
  2. Tops were approximately Aug. 1987, Jan. 1994, Mar 2000, Oct. 2007, and May 2015.
  3. Once a SP pennyless subsequent a red up-trending support lines in 2000, 2007, and (probably) in 2015, a convene was over and vast corrections occurred.
  4. The subsequent vast pierce in a SP looks like it should be, formed on history, a estimable improvement to a 600 – 1,400 range.

Other Considerations:

  1. Federal Reserve easy income has helped emanate a final 6 years of SP rally. The Fed has been propping adult a batch and bond markets while it has been repugnant to a china and bullion markets.
  2. Investors, Wall Street, grant funds, and some-more will roar in agonise if a SP crashes. The arriving correction/crash could be worse than a 2008 crash.
  3. Market breadth, P/E ratios, other fundamentals, crashing commodity prices, and accelerating wars also prove a expected correction.
  4. We have been warned, only as we were in 2000 and 2007.

Shorter Term:

Examine a weekly SP 500 on a record scale for dual periods, 2003 – 2008, and 2010 – 2015. There are similarities.

S-SP-wkly-4

S-SP-wkly-3

  1. Significant bottoms: 3/14/03, 8/13/04, 8/17/07, 11/30/07
  2. Significant bottoms: 7/2/10, 9/23/11, 10/17/14, 8/28/15
  3. Major top: 10/12/2007
  4. Major top: 5/22/2015

The bottoms and singular tip line adult sincerely well.

Note that 5 months after a 2007 high a SP bottomed in Mar 2008, rallied behind into May 2008, and crashed from there.

Three months after a May 2015 high a SP bottomed in late Aug 2015, rallied behind to Nov 2015, and — we are watchful to see if a pile-up occurs in 2016.

WHAT ABOUT SILVER?

Examine a 30+ year record scale draft of (paper) silver. Note a vital lows in china prices, as indicated.

S-Silver-xx

Silver lows occurred about each 7 years in May 1986, Feb 1993, Nov 2001, Oct 2008, and Dec 2015. Now review a china lows to a SP highs over a past 30 years.

SP Tops Silver Bottoms

August 1987 May 1986

January 1994 Feb 1993

March 2000 Nov 2001

October 2007 Oct 2008

May 2015 Dec 2015

The SP tops line adult tolerably good with china bottoms. The final 3 SP tops have preceded china lows.

WHAT DOES THIS PROVE?

In my opinion this proves really little, though a above positively SUGGESTS a following:

  1. The SP has appearance about each 7 years and a rise in May 2015 substantially noted a finish of this 7 year cycle.
  2. The subsequent large pierce in a SP will substantially be down, formed on cycles, a 30 year charts and a 5 year charts.
  3. Silver bottoms start about each 7 years and roughly line adult with SP tops. Assuming a SP has topped, that supports a expectancy for a china low in Dec 2015 or maybe 2016-Q1.
  4. The subsequent large pierce in china should be a substantial, multi-year convene to most aloft prices. My 5 – 7 year guess is $100 per unit for earthy silver.
  5. Continuing executive bank “money printing,” banking devaluations, mercantile and financial madness, unsustainable debt levels, large deficits, and accelerating wars advise aloft china prices.
  6. In a prolonged term, china prices boost along with US supervision executive inhabitant debt, deficits, and dollar devaluations. Increasing debt, deficits and devaluations are all though guaranteed, and hence so are prolonged tenure china cost increases.
  7. Wars, domestic stupidity, financial and mercantile madness, and executive bank interventions all seem to be in “bull” markets. Expect china prices to advantage from all a above.

Summary: Buy silver, sell a SP, supply for inclement weather, and design a violent 2016.

Silver thrives, paper dies!

 

 

 

Courtesy: Gary Christenson – The Deviant Investor

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