TEHRAN — Persian carpets were rolled out in a Beit-e Rahbar, a downtown Tehran offices of Iran’s autarchic leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Tuesday, a pointer that vicious guest were on their way.
One by one, members of Iran’s establishment, politicians, clerics and commanders filed in, many exchanging a regular greetings of committed rivals. They sat cross-legged and waited anxiously, meaningful a essential week of chief negotiations with Western powers lay forward and not meaningful what to design from Mr. Khamenei.
The red lights of a state radio cameras blinked on and he started speaking. He praised a Iranian negotiating organisation as good patriots and correct men. Then he topsy-turvy field, naming 7 “red lines” for a negotiators, strictures that seemed to undercut several of a executive agreements they had already reached with a West.
Afterward, many in a assembly were confused, crony and foe. Did Iran’s personality usually derail a talks by creation unfit final days before a Jun 30 deadline to strech a deal? Or, some-more likely, was he perplexing to strengthen a palm of his member in a negotiations?
Whatever a interpretation, it was a classical opening by Mr. Khamenei, partial of a plan of ambiguity that analysts contend he has followed for some-more than a decade on a curved trail to a chief understanding that, if achieved on his terms, would climax his legacy.
“Our personality deliberately takes obscure stances, given a enemies, including a United States, constantly change their positions,” pronounced Hossein Ghayyoumi, a apportion and politician who supports a chief deal. “In politics, sum and red lines can change from time to time.”
This ambiguity serves mixed purposes. In Iran’s ambiguous domestic system, a autarchic personality presides over a spectrum of factions all opposed for power, change and money. By weaving behind and onward — praising a “patriotism” of a chief negotiators, for instance, while sketch “red lines” in a negotiations — he keeps a assuage antithesis happy while placating a hard-liners in a preaching and a military.
For Mr. Khamenei, a ultimate idea is supervision survival, in both domestic politics and unfamiliar relations. While he has a transparent inhabitant design in a chief talks — pardon his republic from deleterious mercantile sanctions while preserving an eccentric chief appetite module — he needs to be clever about his approach, so as not to be exposed to critique in a domestic realm, utterly from tough conservatives.
As emerges in a examination of those years, commencement with unsuccessful negotiations with Europe and lurching by years of sarcastic breaches in relations, Mr. Khamenei has consistently released clearly contradictory, even haphazard statements, to keep his opponents, both during home and abroad, off balance.
Through a array of such statements, along with consistent warnings that a United States is not to be trusted, he seems to have maneuvered himself into a position where he can announce feat no matter how a entrance turn of talks comes out. If his negotiators fail, and sanctions remain, he can censure a United States, proof his indicate that a leaders can't be trusted. If they succeed, and Iran can be liberated of sanctions while gripping a chief program, he will have cumulative a place for himself in a country’s history.
Just removing to this indicate is an epic story in itself, full of operatic ups and downs and doubtful twists. It began with a avowal of his chief module by an antithesis organisation in 2002, that presented Mr. Khamenei with an evident problem: a hazard of mercantile sanctions and presumably even conflict from a United States, where President George W. Bush was melancholy fight opposite Iraq and had already labeled Iran a member of a “axis of evil.”
Starting what would turn a difficult chief chess game, Mr. Khamenei primarily systematic his reformist president, Mohammad Khatami, to strech out to European nations in hunt of a concede on what was during a time a utterly medium chief program.
Standing during a core of that bid was Hassan Rouhani, afterwards a nation’s top confidence official, now a president. In Oct 2003 he cut a understanding with European powers with a leader’s blessing. Iran would postpone all a improvement activities during negotiations.
As negotiations dragged on it became transparent that zero would get finished yet a United States, yet a Bush administration was not meddlesome in talking. “Our mistake was that we gave a Europeans too many credit, yet they were on a phone with a Americans all a time,” pronounced an associate of Mr. Rouhani’s during a time who has full trust of a talks.
By 2005, when American-occupied Iraq was forward into polite war, Mr. Khamenei abruptly switched tactics. As he removed in a deceptive demeanour in his debate on Tuesday, if Iran wanted to make a deal, it initial indispensable negotiate chips.
He systematic an finish to Iran’s intentional cessation of enrichment, that coincided with a choosing of a tough president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a Holocaust denier who gay in derisive and melancholy a West, utterly a United States. Grinning happily on state television, Mr. Ahmadinejad watched as seals practical to centrifuges by a International Atomic Energy Agency were ripped off and uranium improvement resumed.
During Mr. Ahmadinejad’s tenure, and underneath a superintendence of Mr. Khamenei, Iran went from 64 centrifuges to 19,000. Iran also started mass producing 20-percent enriched uranium and built a towering fort improvement facility.
While he gay many conservatives, Mr. Ahmadinejad finished a tellurian philharmonic of Iran, and not in a many graceful terms. At a same time, mercantile sanctions were commencement to bite.
“Ahmadinejad fanned general tensions,” pronounced Mr. Ghayyoumi, a apportion and politician. “He diverted a courtesy from a genuine issues.”
When President Obama came to bureau in 2009, chief negotiations were going nowhere, yet sanctions were ratcheted adult even further, throttling a Iranian economy. “We did boost a module unequivocally successfully,” pronounced Amir Mohebbian, an confidant to Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. “But a sanctions and miss of investments started to harm us.”
With his economy in tatters, and maybe speedy by tip letters from Mr. Obama pledging to negotiate in good faith, Mr. Khamenei once again systematic an sudden change of course. In 2012, he certified tip shared talks during a strand villa in Oman. With a Sultan of Oman as mediator, and during a ask of a United States, both countries started exploring either approach chief talks would be useful.
“At initial a personality suspicion it would be a trap and he is still distrustful, yet he gave a go-ahead,” pronounced Sadegh Kharazi, a former diplomat incited politician with tighten ties to Mr. Khamenei, who was also benefaction during Tuesday’s speech. “Such talks could not be finished by Mr. Ahmadinejad, everybody agreed; he had turn too many of an antagonizing figure.”
In 2013, a Guardian Council, that evaluates presidential candidates, enabled Mr. Khamenei’s aged chief negotiator, Mr. Rouhani, to run as a categorical assuage candidate. He won handily, earnest to enhance personal freedoms and move an finish to sanctions.
Mr. Khamenei, prolonged deliberate by unfamiliar observers to preference a hard-liners, welcomed a victory, and Mr. Rouhani afterwards set out to revive a country’s open picture in a world. He used all a means during his disposal, from bringing behind from a domestic grave a Western-educated, English-speaking Mr. Zarif, as unfamiliar minister, to a outrageous amicable media debate on Twitter.
Where Mr. Ahmadinejad had once called for Israel to be “wiped off a map,” Mr. Rouhani sent out a Twitter summary wishing Jews a happy new year. The summary reverberated around a world.
In a vicious debate in Sep 2013, Mr. Khamenei himself signaled a finish of his banned on approach talks with a United States, and gave a new process a label: “heroic flexibility.”
Recalling how Hassan, a second Shiite saint, had negotiated with his enemies as a tactic, he pronounced Iran should be prepared to do a same. “We are not opposite correct and receptive tactful moves, be it in a tactful sphere, or a globe of domestic politics.”
“When we listened of a process change during initial we could not trust it,” removed Hamidreza Taraghi, a regressive domestic researcher tighten to a personality and among those who were invited to Tuesday’s speech. “But a personality knows what is best and a patience came in my heart.”
At a annual assembly of a United Nations in New York in Sep 2013, Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Obama spoke on a phone, a initial hit between presidents of a dual countries given a Iranian series in 1979. The autarchic personality did not determine that a hit should have been made, Mr. Taraghi said.
Until now a change in opinion has seemed directed during shortening tensions, yet not nonetheless during creation elemental changes. “This is usually a new plan for a same policies,” Mr. Taraghi pronounced of Mr. Rouhani’s tactful outreach, that he called Iran’s “smile diplomacy.”
“We are a stretchable nation,” he said.
What a overdo unequivocally meant was that Mr. Khamenei, after a prolonged duration of antagonizing a West and building his chief program, felt gentle about resuming a chief talks, insiders said. “Now that we have rolled out a chief appetite program, a personality is prepared to see if a understanding that rises a sanctions is an option,” Mr. Taraghi said.
This week, though, as Mr. Zarif and Secretary of State John Kerry were forward on Vienna for what they hoped would be a final turn of talks, Mr. Khamenei zagged once again, clearly reneging on several bedrock beliefs negotiators suspicion they had staid progressing in Lausanne, Switzerland.
But that was in gripping with his plan of ambiguity, analysts in his stay say, switching unexpected to a tough position to plan strength and isolate him and his negotiating organisation from attacks by domestic opponents.
“If we uncover ourselves as weak, we lose,” pronounced Mr. Mohebbian, a confidant to a unfamiliar minister. “At a same time, we need sanctions to be carried and investment to come in. Our courage has grown over a years. That means that we can negotiate also with a choice of withdrawal a table.”
“In a finish we wish to lead a Muslim world,” he said. “We can usually do that with a heads hold high.”