Weak Demand Record Shorts – Best Indicator of a Massive Rise in Silver Prices
– Rajesh J. Shah
Weak earthy silver demand has been seen starting 2016 is holding incomparable proportions. It seems that a “Cartel” is gaining success in a china marketplace (and gold) strategy schemes from both ends. The Cartel has been utterly successful in utilizing china prices (and gold) down on all occasions ever given 2011. Every vital arise has been slammed with unthinkable record paper shorts ever since. The “TRUE Measure” of a Cartel’s success during utilizing a bullion markets is that it has now succeeded in utilizing a minds of a physical gold and china investors. They have finished certain that these investors trust that some-more pointy declines in bullion and china prices are imminent. After all these (over 5 years) of revolutionary cost strategy to a downside, these investors (after carrying seen their confidence being crushed mixed times) seem some-more prone to now “Sell” during all rises. Some cite not to buy during all, even during mud inexpensive rates. Their affinity seems to have shifted to being sellers after carrying amassed vast loses by being buyers.
PERFECT! Well Done! Now with a Cartel “on a ropes” (read – amidst what appears to be a nuclear phase of their “200 day relocating normal war” with a physical gold and china markets), they competence be shortly be personification a other side of a markets. These manipulators that, compartment now, indispensable buyers for any of their rate slamming operations (while a conglomeration buys during pointy sell-offs), will now need sellers during each vital rise. After-all, if all are on a shopping side, how will a trade be executed. This mind-manipulation was a prerequisite they seem to have played their cards flattering good – during slightest adult compartment now. The infancy of analysts design a physical run on a COMEX, that competence trigger a vast arise in bullion and china prices. While that competence eventually come true, a Cartel will have finished vast gains personification both sides compartment then. Who is to stop them? None, nothing during all.
Weak bullion and silver demand is not usually a North American materialisation as aloft prices and marketplace law take their fee on direct in India and China. Weak bullion direct is one of a vital reasons investors sojourn bearish on gold and silver. Silver direct was diseased in February, with sales of American Eagle Silver bullion coins descending to their lowest levels given Dec 2015, with the U.S. packet offered 1.215 million one-ounce china coins, down some-more than 74.5% compared to sales seen final year.
Gold and Silver coin sales go soothing in March
Surging bullion prices given a start of a year combined poignant debility in a earthy market, with bullion china direct descending to a lowest levels in 14 months, according to a latest sales information from a U.S. Mint.
Sales of china American Eagle one-ounce bullion coins were diseased in March, yet not utterly as diseased as a month before. The Mint’s Authorized Purchasers acquired 1,615,000 china Eagles. This figure is 400,000 aloft than a 1,215,000 taken in February. In comparison, Jan monthly sales totaled 5,127,500. For a initial entertain of 2017, sales were down by 46 percent. Buyers took 7,957,500 coins compared to 14,842,500 in a same duration of 2016.
March numbers for bullion American Eagle bullion coins continued their decline. The U.S. Mint’s annals uncover that it sole 27,500 ounces of bullion in several denominations of American Eagle bullion coins, a lowest sales record given Dec 2015, when a Mint sole 500 ounces of bullion. Gold china sales fell 67% compared to sales seen in Feb 2016.
A sum of 21,000 ounces were sole in Mar compared to 27,500 in Feb and 117,500 in January. The sales sum for a initial entertain of 2017 is 166,000 ounces, down 32 percent from a initial entertain of 2016.
Though a Mint sells 4 sizes of bullion American Eagles, many of a changed steel is sole in a form of a one-ounce coin. Sales in a initial entertain totaled 123,500 pieces. In a initial entertain of 2016, a series was 185,500.
Here is some-more explanation on a Cartel’s mind utilizing game….
A Record Number Of Investing Pros Are Betting Against Silver
– Dana Lyons: Commercial hedgers have never had a incomparable net brief position in china futures. We speak about financier perspective sincerely mostly in these pages. Of course, perspective research is good famous for a “contrarian” nature, i.e., that “fading” a throng mostly ends adult being a scold move. What folks mostly get wrong with perspective indicators, however, is that going with a prevalent opinion is customarily a right play – until a opinion becomes too widely accepted. That is, sentiment-based indicators usually turn contrarian when they turn intensely one-sided. Based on one measure, we are observant intensely biased perspective in a china market.
That magnitude is a positioning among Commercial Hedgers in china futures, that is now during a largest net brief position (-112K contracts) on record, going behind to 1986 (according to a CFTC’s Commitment Of Traders report).
Why is this significant? Commercial Hedgers are mostly deliberate a “smart money”. Again, this isn’t given they are always right. They take positions conflicting trend-following Speculators, e.g., sidestep funds, etc. Therefore, during prolonged trends, they can be on a wrong side for awhile. However, during vicious junctures and branch points, when positions typically turn extreme, they are roughly always rightly positioned.
Of course, we always have to supplement a disclaimer that these positions can positively get some-more impassioned – and some-more wrong, temporarily – before they start profitable off. Indeed, final spring, we remarkable that a Hedgers’ net brief position in china futures had reached a record then. After a brief dip, china prices proceeded to hook on about another 15% over a subsequent few months while a Hedgers’ net brief position grew even some-more extreme. Eventually, china prices would decrease some 25%, rewarding a Hedgers’ positioning.
Likewise, china prices could presumably continue aloft in a nearby tenure while a Hedgers’ record net brief position continues to grow even larger. However, one of a unfortunate things for china bulls contingency be that, notwithstanding a record bullish perspective (e.g., swindler longs), prices are still good next final summer’s peak. Thus, in a view, a zeal of a throng to adopt such a bullish position relations to a assuage gains in a commodity is a bit unsettling.
Will china continue aloft in a face of this record positioning? It is probable in a near-term. However, to adopt that position is to join an already unprecedentedly swarming position. Historically, that is when one should be vanishing a crowd.
Charts Spelling ‘Big Trouble’ for Silver
Silver’s latest charts uncover that it is set adult for a potentially serious decline, says technical researcher Clive Maund.
Silver’s latest charts uncover that it is set adult for a potentially serious decline, a conditions that is aggravated by a latest COTs and Hedgers charts display record impassioned readings, that meant BIG TROUBLE for silver. Now, we competence think, like so many traders did on Friday morning, that with Cruise Missiles drifting around a Mideast, a opinion for a Precious Metals couldn’t be better, yet a charts are observant that this is an opportunity—on a brief side—dressed adult in a difficulty that will shortly ease.
Action in china on Friday was unequivocally bearish as we can see on a 6-month draft below—it attempted to mangle aloft in a morning yet a dermatitis try unsuccessful and it forsaken back, zig-zagging around and withdrawal behind a high volume “Spinning Top” candlestick on a chart, so that it looks like it is about to mangle down from a Double Top with a highs of late February.
The 1-year draft shows china perched on a corner of a cliff, during a tip of a vast expanding downtrend channel with no service in steer until it reaches a support turn shown, and COTs and Hedgers charts uncover that it could dump many further—to a reduce range of this expanding channel.
The risk of china tipping into a potentially serious decrease from here is amplified by a latest COT draft readings, that uncover that Commercial brief and Large Spec prolonged positions have risen to during slightest one-year extremes. This is noticed as definition BIG TROUBLE for silver.
The sobriety of a conditions confronting china is finished even some-more transparent by a latest Hedgers’ chart, that shows that Hedgers’ positions are during all-time bearish extremes. This draft creates it intensely doubtful that china will or can allege from here—more expected is a serious decrease behind towards a reduce range of a expanding channel shown on silver’s 1-year draft above. Needless to say, a grave opinion for china set out here also has bearish implications for gold, where a COT and Hedgers’ charts are nowhere nearby as decisive.
CRITICAL SHORT-TERM SILVER PRICE TREND: Put into Perspective
– SRSroccoreport: The stream china cost trend is once again during a vicious juncture. It has been 4 years given a cost of china crossed an vicious trend line. However, a benefaction setup will outcome in possibly another improvement lower, or a many aloft price.
This is a ten-year draft that shows a stream trade setup for silver:
The blue line represents a 50 month relocating average,and a red line, the 200 month relocating average. Since a cost of china fell next a blue line during a commencement of 2013, a support has been a red line. It did not tumble next a red line during a low in a commencement of 2016 and has bounced twice off a blue line, that is now behaving as insurgency by traders.
Currently, a china cost is attack adult opposite a 200 month relocating normal blue insurgency line. If a china cost breaks above and closes above it, we could see a many aloft china price. However, if does not, afterwards we could knowledge another short-term correction.
Looking during a stream china COT REPORT, there is a record blurb brief position opposite silver. The Commercial brief positions are from a vast bullion banks:
The red lines during a bottom of a draft paint a sum Commercial net brief positions in silver. As we can see, it is during a record high. This high Commercial net brief china position routinely means a china cost will expected conduct lower…. over a brief term.
That being said, we have turn reduction endangered about a SHORT-TERM china cost movement. While some investors are means to trade and make income trade silver, we am not one of them. My concentration on china is to reason onto it for a LONGER-TERM. Short tenure china cost movements are not a regard when we concentration on a decaying appetite and mercantile fundamentals.
Some changed metals investors have turn undone or restored due to a low china price. This is distinct given some competence have purchased china during a aloft cost and feel as if they finished a wrong investment decision. However, appropriation earthy china should be finished over a duration of time and be hold as a SAFE HAVEN for a future…. usually like any other retirement plan.
The BIG disproportion between owning earthy china and many paper retirement plans, is that a value of many retirement resources will many positively thrust in value in a destiny while a cost of china will expected be many higher. Unfortunately, many investors are possibly too impatient, variable or miss a ability to know this LONG-TERM elemental setup.
Lastly, if Americans who are especially invested in STOCKS, BONDS and REAL ESTATE, diversified into a tiny 2-5% allocation of earthy bullion and silver, it would totally overcome a market…. forget about a rest of a 7 billion people in a world.
Which is precisely because a MANIPULATION of bullion and china has been finished especially by psychology, rather than price. Why? Because a stream algorithm pricing resource for bullion and china is formed on their cost of production. So, to see a stream $18 china cost and $1,275 is not that absurd if it is formed on what it cost to furnish them.
But, bullion and china act many differently than many commodities, energy, products and services. While many line and appetite are consumed, a lot of bullion and china are saved. So, bullion and china contingency be valued differently. If people satisfied a apocalyptic appetite difficulty we are confronting in a future, they would comprehend it would be advantageous to possess some earthy bullion and silver. However, they are being trick by a Mainstream media, so they can't unequivocally be blamed.
When a markets finally crack…. a Fed and Central Banks competence have one final RABBIT to lift out of a hat, and that would be a HYPERINFLATIONARY event. Unfortunately, this will not final prolonged and will finish utterly badly.
Thus, when we strech this point… there is NO GOING BACK. The United States and universe will demeanour like a many opposite place and during that point, it will be too late to sell paper and buy bullion and silver.
Geo-Political Effects on a Short Term Outlook in a Silver Prices
Starting with a developments of a past 24 hours, news that a US and Japan are strategizing troops options opposite North Korea, should China destroy to power in a brute state, has impacted a markets widely. Notably, protected havens such as bullion and china have peaked significantly and, in both instances, this has erased a effects of final week’s US practice data. Technical disposition in china is rarely understanding of ongoing gains that competence meant that it is now staid to make that final pull towards a $19 handle. Less than a week ago a US struck a blow opposite a Syrian Regime in response to their use of chemical weapons in a ongoing crisis. Trump-era unfamiliar process seems to have no qualms with a use of force to plan a ideals and strengthen a interests. Nevertheless, this in of itself is adding to a altogether domestic risks buoying china prices as a tangled web of alliances in Syria put a US in risk of sparking a dispute with an increasingly firm-handed Russia.
Given there is no necessity of elemental movement behind silver, a steel competence finally be means to partisan a support indispensable to pull past a 18.47 hoop that has, until now, capped upsides. If this is a case, a broader ABC call should finish that would be in line with a rarely bullish relocating normal disposition and a neutral RSI readings. Additionally, that MACD vigilance line crossover that had some traders disturbed yesterday looks as yet it competence be a small bit of a fake dwindle and can expected be ignored.
Ultimately, a multiple of a elemental and technical biases should see gains extend over a entrance weeks. Indeed, should a state of tellurian politics not urge in a middle to long-run, this convene could pull over even a $19 hoop that has been forecasted on a technical basis.
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