Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge

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Can we emanate a process to envision destiny geopolitical outcomes that is improved than tide state-of-the-art methods?

Decision makers rest on a Intelligence Community to yield accurate and applicable forecasts, and IARPA is operative to brand methods to maximize a peculiarity of these forecasts. IARPA’s Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge invites people or teams to rise innovative solutions and methods for integrating crowdsourced forecasts and other information into accurate, timely forecasts of geopolitical events.

Solvers will be competing opposite any other and in together with a likewise structured investigate module saved by IARPA. Overall, IARPA is seeking novel approaches that can assistance serve tide methodologies and urge a correctness and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts. Over a march of 7 months, a GF Challenge solvers will be asked to furnish forecasts to a array of questions like:

In sequence to answer these questions, solvers will be given entrance to a invariably updated tide of foresee judgments constructed by a throng of tellurian forecasters and will be authorised to use other information sources to furnish their solutions. The plea presents an event for people and teams to acquire prizes by formulating methods that successfully foresee a far-reaching accumulation of geopolitical events, such as domestic elections, general conflict, illness outbreaks, and macro-economic indicators.


Solvers will be means to contest on their possess or form teams to contest for a sum esteem purse of $200,000. The esteem amounts shown are contingent on certain criteria and/or appearance requirements. Challenge formula and solutions will be reviewed during an IARPA forecasting Workshop in Washington, D.C.


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