The New Gold and Silver Forecasts – Alternative Scenarios

201 views Leave a comment

The New Gold and Silver Forecasts - Alternative Scenarios

Precious Metals Watch: The New Gold and Silver Forecasts

  • The convene in bullion and china prices is using out of steam…
  • …as Fed rate travel expectations have resurfaced
  • We now design a duration of consolidation…
  • …as prolonged as Fed rate hikes for 2016 and 2017 are not entirely labelled in…
  • …followed by aloft bullion and china prices afterwards

The bullion convene is using out steam…

So distant in Q3, bullion prices have rallied by usually 0.8% that is rather disappointing. We had approaching a stronger convene for several reasons. First, we had approaching a incomparable Brexit fallout on financial markets reflected in disastrous financier sentiment. As a result, investors would pierce into bullion (and to a obtuse border silver) for protected breakwater reasons. In fact, this did not materialize as financier perspective on financial markets softened also helped by a new stronger-than-expected UK data. Second, a categorical unfolding was that a Fed would sojourn on reason in 2016. However, recently we changed to a 25bp rate travel in Dec 2016. Comments from Fed officials and stronger-than-expected US information have triggered expectations that a Fed will travel this year. This has upheld a US dollar as US genuine rates have changed somewhat aloft (less negative). The arise in a US dollar and US genuine rates and reduce protected have direct have weighed on bullion prices in Q3. This is reflected in reduce financier direct in a futures markets and for bullion ETFs.

160906-PM1  160906-PM2
…but no change in trend

Expectations of a Fed rate travel this year came 3 months progressing than we had foreseen. Therefore, bullion prices did not convene as we had expected. Fed rate travel expectations will expected sojourn a thesis for a entrance time.


Our perspective is for a Fed to travel a process by 25bp during any of a December, Jun 2017 and Dec 2017 meetings. Currently, a 25bp rate travel in Dec is for 60% labelled in by financial markets. For 2017 financial markets have hardly labelled in rate hikes. Financial markets will expected design Fed rate hikes for 2017 as good this year and/or a start of subsequent year. This will expected continue to import on bullion and china prices. However, we don’t design a heartless sell-off. Our bottom unfolding suggests that US mercantile expansion will sojourn moderate, improving usually somewhat in 2017. Such a outcome will be understanding for bullion and china prices for a following reasons
1. Inflation will expected be aloft than growth
2. Real seductiveness rates are foresee to sojourn disastrous (less disastrous though)
3. The longer-term US dollar trend has incited negative


Therefore, we reason on to a perspective that a uptrend in bullion and china prices stays in place. However, a awaiting of Fed rate hikes will import on bullion and china prices and therefore we have practiced a forecasts. We now see a converging in bullion prices for a entrance buliding definition that they will expected pierce in a USD 1,300 to 1,350 trade range. Silver prices will expected be some-more volatile. Therefore a operation will expected be USD 18.5 to 20.5 per ounce. As shortly as Fed rate hikes for 2016 and 2017 are entirely labelled in, we design bullion and china prices to convene again since of aloft direct from investors.

Alternative scenarios

These ranges will expected be damaged if Trump becomes President and/or if financier perspective deteriorates sharply. This would outcome in neatly aloft bullion and china prices. Another unfolding is that US mercantile expansion picks adult strongly triggering a Fed to travel rates aggressively in an sourroundings of constructive financier sentiment. This would be a longhorn box for a US dollar as US genuine rates would also arise substantially. In this unfolding a US dollar uptrend would have another leg while bullion prices could dump next their 200-day relocating normal of USD 1,230 per unit signalling that a uptrend is over.





Courtesy: Georgette Boele – ABN AMRO

Please check behind for new articles and updates during

tag cloud

Fed Rate Hikes , Futures Markets , Gold and Silver Forecasts , Gold and Silver Prices , Gold ETFs , Gold Prices , Gold Rally , Precious Metals , Real Interest Rates , US Dollar , US Economic Growth